Dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil
forecast
Oil price. Dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil
Today Wednesday, 22 Martha, 2023 year
Dynamics of oil prices in real time
Dollar to ruble exchange rate
Euro to dollar rate
What will happen to the price of oil and the exchange rate of the ruble?
The ruble exchange rate stopped falling along with the suspension falling oil prices. Earlier, the ruble fell to its lowest level in history and reached 86 rub against the dollar, having received strong pressure from low oil prices. It is believed to be the lowest rate since the financial crisis. 1998 of the year. Russia - one of the world s largest oil suppliers, therefore the ruble is highly dependent on the price of oil, its production and consumption. Along with the fall in oil prices, the country s foreign exchange reserves are decreasing, which puts it in a difficult position.
Falling oil prices
Oil fell so rapidly in pricethat we were more than once surprised when the oil price got lower and lower in comparison with previous drawdowns. The very bottom of the dynamics of the rates falls at the time of the lifting of sanctions from Iran. The price of oil fell to the lowest price for 13 years. At the same time, half of the Russian budget is replenished from oil and gas, and most likely financing of many areas will be limited, but the most important areas will definitely receive money for the most necessary.
Oil dictates economic policy
However, the country s leadership and officials believe that nothing terrible is happening.. Falling oil revenues only stimulate the country to get down to business, to put pressure on other areas of the economy. As a result of special measures, the pressure from a strong drop in oil took over the federal budget and to a lesser extent went to Russian companies.
It is argued that these days the Central Bank does not intervene as actively in the ruble exchange rate as it used to.. Maybe, but who knows what s really going on. It is assumed that the Central Bank will not actively restrain the ruble exchange rate as long as it does not threaten the country s economic stability. The central bank does not support the ruble from the end 2014 And also Ts. The Bank of Russia said it would only intervene if there are risks to financial stability.
Graph, oil price 22.03.23
Oil price: much lower
In any case, the situation is more or less calmer now.. Oil in the so-called flat, when there is no particular rise or fall. There is no doubt about the huge budget deficit, devaluation and inflation, but Russia is not an ordinary country, it s like going through the winter.… In general, over the year, the Russian economy did not fall too much, but it did not grow either..
Russia s central bank has warned that the country s economy may continue to contract this year after falling 3,8 percent last year if oil prices do not recover.
Forecasts for oil price and ruble exchange rate
Western analysts relish with pleasure that the fall in oil is not over, that this is a temporary slowdown.. Well, they need them, let them hope... The fact is that according to the schedule and the price of oil production, it is clear that the price of oil is pressing down more and more weakly and it may very well be that the forces pressing it are excessively depleted, but it may not shoot up weakly, believe me. And before 120 can fly without blinking.
One could safely bet on an increase in oil prices, if it were not for the active interest of some Western forces, so that a large increase in oil does not happen. But here s a sharp rise, no one can keep the price rise at some distance from the bottom..
It is believed that if oil falls and stays at the 21 dollar, the ruble dollar exchange rate will reach 92 - 94 rub. It is assumed that the price of oil and the ruble exchange rate will revolve all year just above the bottom, or oil will still make a leap up next year..
Pros of falling oil prices
Though along with the fall in oil prices, we are all getting poorer, there are also positive aspects of falling oil.
the government lowered its forecast for the economy for this year.
Falling oil prices and budget deficits stimulate the development of other sectors of the economy and domestic production of goods for the population and business. Along with the devaluation, the production of goods becomes more profitable and competitive, there are more opportunities for export, a noticeable decrease in imports.
Oil and the crisis in Russia
According to the government, the hardest time of the crisis has passed, when the country had to save tough. Well, the crisis is passing in a new way much softer than the previous ones, cannot be compared with the crises of the beginning of the century or the last century..
And yet a huge budget deficit - not a toy, of course there will be a shortage of money until the oil price returns to normal. Normal, because the current price is undoubtedly too low. But as great traders say, there are no undervalued prices.. As history shows, tomorrow the oil price can turn around and creep in any direction and creep there for as long as necessary, surprising the people and forecast experts for a long time..
The budget deficit in Russia was about 3 percent of GDP and the government expected to reduce 10 percent from the federal budget, which was developed based on oil prices in $ 40 per barrel. All Russian ministries had to submit their proposals to reduce their spending in order to reduce 500 billion. rub of government spending.
The ruble against the dollar against the background of oil
The ruble is also under pressure from economic sanctions that the West imposed on Russia for participating in the crisis in Ukraine.
Due to such a low oil price and economic sanctions against Russia, the country s foreign exchange reserves became the smallest for 5 years.
Despite all measures, the ruble weakened and previously crossed the mark 86 rub per US dollar, but made a rollback and is strengthening against the background of rising oil prices. I would like to remind you that in the event of a fall in the currency, the population of the country becomes poorer, and the economy is more precarious.. It was noticed that the ruble fell slightly less than the oil price and this is a good sign for the country s economy..
There was some panic on the Russian markets during the peak of the falls, as well as the Russian stock indices RTS, MICEX and the prices of shares of Russian companies, especially those related to the production and processing of oil and gas..
They add fuel to the fire and fair interests not to lose on the devaluation of the ruble. Many people buy euros and dollars in slightly larger volumes than usual.. However, this was also the case before, because the ruble usually did not make up a large part in the basket of currencies to preserve and increase capital..
The weakness of the ruble carries inflationary risks, which could limit the scope for easing monetary-credit policy needed to curb the economic downturn. Many people believe that consumer prices will rise due to the depreciation of the ruble.. The central bank kept the key rate unchanged at the level 11%by holding a regular meeting of the board of directors.
Oil price. Dependence of the ruble on oil. Oil price chart for rub per 2023
Oil prices 03.2023
