Today Wednesday, 22 Martha, 2023 year
Price chart for oil, dollar, ruble, gold, etc.. metals |
Usually, dollar rate against the ruble highly dependent on oil prices. During the fall in futures prices on commodity exchanges, the ruble begins to fall uncontrollably against other currencies, which we observe in the ruble dollar and the euro ruble bond..
Let s see what happened in 2014 year. Then the fall in oil prices started, and then the ruble wavered after a short consolidation. And although the ruble against the dollar did not fall as rapidly as the oil price, its positions were shaken quite critically.
The Russian ruble exchange rate is most sensitive to the movement of oil prices. However, everything is being done to reduce the dependence of the ruble on the price of oil, as well as the dependence of the country s economy on the influence of energy prices.. Despite this, it is not at all difficult to make a forecast for the Russian currency.. For a very long time, the ruble and oil prices will go side by side, as the currency strategists assume.. In the market of commodity and currency futures, we see a correlation on the charts of the dynamics of the ruble against the dollar and oil, it is enough to superimpose one on top of the other. And before the markets calmed down, the ruble was falling as rapidly as the price of oil.. Therefore, currency speculators playing on the ruble dollar exchange rate are always guided by oil prices and their dynamics..
Oil, in turn, shows extremely strange leaps.. Who would have thought that the price of oil futures could be lower 25 dollars per barrel. Then it seemed that this price could fall to 10 dollars, which, of course, is impossible. At least the average cost of oil production is much higher, because at the same time, human resources are still actively used, despite the latest production technologies.. As well as difficulties arise during the transportation of oil and other costs.
Russia s economy, driven to recession, during oil drops just bursting at the seams. The country s budget is missing billions of dollars, and many social spending items have come under severe cuts, and, what is not bad, under tight control.. On the other hand, countries - oil exporters are actively working to stabilize oil prices by announcing restrictions on the production and development of new sources of black gold. At the same time, the development of American shale deposits, which are much more expensive than other types of oil production, have been suspended..
Russia is far from the only country to suffer from low prices. We can especially highlight the problems in Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, whose economies are more than half dependent on oil exports and extremely oil prices.
Meanwhile, together with oil price lows over several years, the Russian ruble meets historical lows on its part against the dollar and the euro. More recently, the ruble against the dollar has touched a mark in 80 rub per dollar and 87 rub for the euro and this is not the limit for the Russian currency, so the Russian ruble this time suffered greatly from the fall in the price of oil and natural gas. As well as a significant factor holding back the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate are economic sanctions by the United States and the European Union, which restrict the country s access to external borrowing, which has become such a frequent occurrence, which is a reason for sarcasm among the population in Russia.. Russian leaders are acutely aware of this vulnerability, and they are taking effective measures to combat the depreciation of the ruble and are busy diversifying the economy.. The situation in Ukraine and the hostilities in Syria add fuel to the fire, one way or another affecting the dynamics of oil prices and the dynamics of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. Against this background, the International Monetary Background and other world financial institutions downgrade the economic rating of Russia.
Despite the political games, and manipulation of oil prices, few people paid attention to the fact that the situation in Russia is such that the decline in oil prices and the fall of the ruble against the dollar will not have a catastrophic effect on the stability of our country. Russia is so adapted to crises and changes in the economic situation that the West is simply amazed at the comparison of what could happen if something like that hit the economy of the United States or Europe. Let s say thanks to the patriotism of Russians, which this time only contributes to the recovery of the country s economy, and will support the stability and well-being of the Russians themselves.. Even so, but still the country s economy uses a budget that more than half depends on oil exports, in addition, investments in the country have sharply decreased, since the current situation exacerbates the financial risk for foreign capital, and anyone understands that with the fall of the ruble prices on goods for the population are increasing significantly, and incomes are decreasing. Oil prices are also under pressure from political upheavals, an increase in the weight of the dollar, and a slowdown in the economic development of China as the main consumer and importer of oil..
Why not panic on the fall in oil prices и depreciation of the ruble in relation to other currencies? Everything is very simple. Who has not forgotten that the dollar has a stigma in the gun. Let s take a look around and we will see that despite the fact that the US dollar - a skillful crook in terms of its value, it is also exorbitantly inflated in price, while the price of oil is ridiculously pinned to the ground. The economy and markets will not hold back the contradictory imbalance for a long time and, of course, the price spring will shoot, no matter how much it is compressed by artificial methods and natural world events. No one doubts that the unexpected low oil price plays into the hands of those who artificially aggravate the situation and we can say this is the peak of such activity, to which the dynamics of oil begins to adapt and this will not last as long. In addition, Russia has a well-developed system of gold and foreign exchange reserves, which history goes back decades, and the institution of which is widely developed in Russia.. Not only that, the time of low oil prices - the best time for trade with Russia, the best time for fruitful agreements in politics and economics, which countries should do - the country s trade and political allies.
The depreciation of the ruble significantly hits the pocket of an ordinary citizen of the country, even more significantly squeezes budget freedoms, however, it also increases the competitiveness of Russian goods, which can make good money and gives an impetus for the development of industry and the economy, not tied to energy resources, which for the future of Russia can be very important. After all, Russia has incredibly narrowed the gap with the most developed countries in development in the field of economics and science..
Against the backdrop of these events, a trend has emerged for rapprochement between China and Iran, whose leadership is increasingly meeting to discuss economic and political problems.. As a result, many agreements on economic and technical cooperation were signed.. In addition, the leaders announced that they will continue to cooperate in economic and political directions, which will also help to stabilize the market and restore stable oil prices.. It will also allow Tehran to break the years of economic isolation and open up opportunities for economic development in the region..
The lifting of economic sanctions on Iran provides trade opportunities for countries in the region, such as giants such as China. Trade will generate billions of dollars not only for oil-rich Iran, but also for countries with close economic relations with Iran, including Russia, adding confidence that China, Iran and Russia will expand trade and boost economic growth.
Russia can create its own brand of oil to sell it on international markets. According to German publications, the Russian oil grade may become a direct competitor to Western Brent and oil grades WTI, prices for which are calculated only in US dollars. If this happens, Russia could deal a serious blow not only to the American currency, but also to the influence of the United States in the world.. In November in St. - Petersburg, the International Commodity Exchange held the first trading in futures contracts for Russian export crude oil Urals. The prices for our main export flows, on which our budget depends, remain in the hands of our so-called partners, said a representative of the exchange.. Presently, Brent used to determine the price of Russian oil. This grade of oil is used to value two-thirds of the world s oil contracts, even though the share of this grade of oil in the total oil production in the world is less than one percent.. Large Investment Banks Influencing Brent Oil Pricing. WTI is another globally recognized benchmark that also has dollar pegs. Russia s personal oil benchmark could thus destroy the column of American domination. The demand for dollars will not subside as long as all settlements are made through Brent и WTI.
