What s with the ruble. Why did the ruble collapse . Oil prices. Forecast for the ruble exchange rate


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What will happen to the dollar.

Is it worth selling the ruble? In what currencies to keep your savings and how many of them in rub? How to save your money? A sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate

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What s with the ruble? The Russian ruble is falling like never before - collapsed by more than 10%, in record time. Such a sharp drop in the currency was observed only in pre-crisis times..
Let s figure it out. Often, after a strong move, a rebound occurs and the price returns at least half of the move. But even more often, the price still continues to move further, but not so quickly. What then will happen to the ruble? The fall will continue, but not as much as in the last days?

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Dynamics of the ruble exchange rate per week, real time graph

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Oil price charts, dollar, ruble online

What will happen to the dollar. Ruble and oil

The Russian ruble fell along with the fall in oil during 18 months and reached record highs in history. The fall in the ruble against the dollar was influenced by Western sanctions due to instability in Ukraine. In about the same way, the ruble fell against the euro, and even an anecdote appeared that some exchange offices no longer had enough space for quotes on the scoreboard, which exceeded the mark in 100 rub. It is believed that this was the peak of the fall not only of the ruble, but also of the Russian economy as a whole.. At the same time, the leadership of the country and the Central Bank said that everything was under control and that there were enough forces and means to keep the ruble exchange rate from collapse and to a collapse in the country s financial sector.. The price of oil at that time fell below its own 12 summer lows. During this time, the ruble has lost more than 12 percent. The situation was very similar to that in 2014 year when the ruble fell sharply to 80 rub per dollar and 100 rub per euro. However, this time there is no panic in the market.. Quite calmly, the ruble moves after oil and also rebounds with it. The ruble is close to its fundamental level, and the Central Bank does not see a threat to financial stability in Russia.

How the Central Bank interferes with the dollar-ruble exchange rate, interest rates

However, strong interference with the ruble on the part of the Central Bank did not happen and funds were not spent to support its course. This decision is supported by the Central Bank and other banks of the country, which also assumed that intervention in the ruble exchange rate was not required and the dynamics as a whole depended on the oil price.. And it was also decided not to change interest rates.. The correctness of which was confirmed a little later, when the oil price reached the bottom and turned around, at the same time, the ruble also sharply showed positive results in the price dynamics against the dollar and the euro. The fall of the ruble was largely due to reasons beyond the control of the country, where the oil price was decisive to a greater extent and the only thing that could be done was to calm the markets by political methods.. All this happened against the backdrop of the global blurring of the situation on the oil market and its extreme low price..

Oil, ruble, our pocket and budget

The country s government has already announced that such a sharp drop in oil prices will require significant cuts in spending from the country s budget.. The media are advised not to sow panic over the crisis and the depreciation of the ruble.
Most likely, the fall of the ruble and oil will affect the elections to the legislative bodies of the country. The International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for Russia, saying the country s economy would contract by 1 percentage this year. The IMF has warned that a slowdown in Chinese growth, a strengthening US dollar and falling oil prices - devastation in the Russian economy.

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What will happen to the dollar, will it fall? Ruble and oil

Simultaneously we see drop in oil prices - dynamics. What is it? New wave of the crisis? Ok, let s take a look at state of the economy - world stock indices, where the Russian RTS index continues to move down against the background of the fact that European and American indices continue to move up strongly. However, quite recently, the west also made a noticeable dive down - also a negative signal. And a negative signal for the world market was always accompanied by a strengthening dollar.

Why did the ruble collapse ?

Back to the collapse of the ruble. As you know, the ruble is being prepared for free floating. It is assumed that the Central Bank will cease to significantly support the ruble. At the moment, the ruble is insured against sudden movements, hyperinflation, and sharp surges. Therefore, the rumors about the transition of the ruble to a new level are used by financiers.

How to save your money?

How do funds deal with the ruble in such cases ? They regulate the basket of currencies, reducing the percentage of the ruble share in times of troubles and keeping world currencies in it. - dollar, euro, pound, yen, yuan. And yet, they do not advise the population to exactly the agiotage sale of the ruble and the purchase of foreign currency..

More reasons for the collapse of the ruble

Yes, but what happened in the last days? We hear more and more about the attack on the ruble. What kind of attack and who benefits from when market interests are squeezed by external influences?

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What will happen to the ruble?

If you look at the situation soberly, you can see how often the rush movements in the currency price do not correspond to the real value of the ruble.. The Central Bank has enough funds to support the ruble. The Central Bank can calmly postpone or bring a free fall, and oil will be even more in demand and its price will inevitably go up. There are enough factors on the side of the ruble that keep the ruble from falling completely.

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Oil and ruble

Low oil prices have made it more difficult for the government to meet its social spending obligations, while the fall in the ruble against the dollar restricts Russians to buy imported food and goods.

The government will strive to fulfill its social obligations and what will have to " significantly reduce " other expenses .

The outlook for the Russian economy is clouded and the International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for Russia, announcing that the country s economy would contract by 1 percentage this year . The Russian market at the moment is highly dependent on global sentiment in world markets, which so far do not inspire hopes for a speedy recovery.. And also sharply limited external borrowings of the country aggravated the crisis due to the US and European sanctions on the occasion of the war in Ukraine and the economic sanctions of Moscow against Turkey due to the downed Russian bomber on the Syrian border in November . Western media claim that during the crisis Russians began to save more on food purchases, although who told them that ) and we have made purchases before without swinging too much.

Impact of oil on the ruble

The Russian ruble gave a new round of decline against the backdrop of a continuing drop in oil prices, as investors fear that the fall in oil futures prices will hit the ruble, and that the impact of oil on the Russian economy is not expected to decrease. The ruble fell like a scenario 2014 years when the market strongly alarmed investors with the chaotic movement of the ruble dynamics. However, this time there was no chaos in the markets, despite the confident decrease in the ruble.. And although many traders have already bet on the collapse of the ruble, their forecasts did not come true and the ruble, having touched the bottom, stopped its fall, following the reversal of the oil price. The risk of hyperinflation is over, but there are still many problems associated with extremely low oil prices.. And yet it looks like the ruble has withstood the attack this time and with little confidence will still be afloat.. I didn t even have to lower the interest rate, as it was done in 2014 year to mitigate the impact of the economic downturn, but the outlook for the economy is still rather dim and everything depends on an early rise in oil prices, which will certainly go up, but no one knows when. The central bank refrains from the decision to influence the ruble exchange rate, in order to delay its decline, citing the fact that the dynamics of the ruble corresponds to the global economic situation and the dynamics of oil prices, on which the ruble depends. At the same time, the general state of world markets is still negative, and especially there is a drop in prices on the stock markets of the world as a whole..

Dynamics of oil prices and stock markets

Oil prices have noticeably approached extremely low levels of the crisis 2003 years, and pushed off in a positive direction, which was very predictable. Sberbank shares fell sharply in price, as well as the RTS index fell sharply, and the MICEX index sagged significantly, the bond market was in a fever. Gazprom shares also went down, as this company is also under the influence of oil prices, however, in general, Gazprom is doing well and it is successfully expanding markets in the European direction. Oil prices have been heavily impacted by the expanded development of oil fields in the United States, excessive accumulation in storage facilities and a slowdown in the pace of development of the Chinese economy as the main consumer of imported oil..

A sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate 07.02.2023

A sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate

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