Gas price. Dependence of the ruble exchange rate on gas

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Today Sunday, 26 Martha, 2023 year

Gas price dynamics in real time

Gas price chart WTI (Light) For half a year

Brent gas price chart for six months

Forecast - will the gas price rise

Dependence of the ruble exchange rate on gas

Dollar to ruble exchange rate

Euro to dollar rate

What will happen to the gas price?

The ruble exchange rate stopped falling along with the suspension falling gas prices. Earlier, the ruble fell to its lowest level in history and reached 86 rub against the dollar, having received strong pressure from low gas prices. It is believed to be the lowest rate since the financial crisis. 1998 of the year. Russia - one of the world s largest gas suppliers, so the ruble is highly dependent on gas prices. Along with the fall in gas prices, the country s foreign exchange reserves are decreasing.

Falling gas prices

gas prices fell so rapidly. The very bottom of the dynamics of the rates falls at the time of the lifting of sanctions from Iran. Gas price fell to the lowest price for 13 years. At the same time, half of the Russian budget is replenished from gas and, most likely, financing of many areas will be limited..

Gas dictates economic policy

Falling gas revenues only stimulate the country to get down to business. As a result of special measures, the pressure from a strong drop in gas took over the federal budget and to a lesser extent went to Russian companies.
Nowadays, the Central Bank does not intervene as actively in the ruble exchange rate as it used to.. What s really going on? It is assumed that the Central Bank will not actively restrain the ruble exchange rate as long as it does not threaten the country s economic stability and does not support the ruble from the end 2014 It was stated that the Central Bank will intervene only if there are risks to financial stability.

Gas price: much lower

Previously, gas was in a flat, when there is no particular growth or fall. There is no doubt about the huge budget deficit, devaluation and inflation, but Russia is not an ordinary country, it s like going through the winter.… In general, over the year, the Russian economy did not fall too much, but it did not grow either..
Russia s central bank has warned that the country s economy may continue to contract this year after falling 3,8 percent last year if gas prices do not recover.

Schedule USD / RUB at the rate of CB

Refresh Graph USD to the ruble

Gas price and ruble forecasts

It looks like the gas drop is not over, it s a temporary slowdown. According to the schedule and the price of gas production, it is clear that the price of gas was pressed down more and more weakly and the forces pressing it were excessively exhausted, but it was not weak to shoot up.
We could safely bet on an increase in gas prices, if it were not for the active interest of some Western forces, so that a large increase in gas does not happen. But here s a sharp rise, no one can keep the price rise at some distance from the bottom..
It is believed that if gas falls and is delayed, the ruble dollar exchange rate will reach 92 - 94 rub. It is assumed that the price of gas and the ruble exchange rate will revolve a little higher all year, or gas will nevertheless make a leap up next year..

Pros of falling gas prices

Though along with falling gas prices, we are all getting poorer, there are also positive aspects of falling gas.
the government lowered its forecast for the economy for this year.
Falling gas prices and budget deficits stimulate the development of other sectors of the economy and domestic production of goods for the population and business. Along with the devaluation, the production of goods becomes more profitable and competitive, there are more opportunities for export, a noticeable decrease in imports.

gas and the crisis in Russia

The hardest time of the crisis has passed, when the country had to tough economies. Well, the crisis is passing in a new way much softer than the previous ones, cannot be compared with the crises of the beginning of the century or the last century..
And yet a huge budget deficit - not a toy, of course there will be a shortage of money until the normal gas price is restored. Normal, because the current price is undoubtedly too low. But as great traders say, there are no undervalued prices.. As history shows, tomorrow the gas price can turn around and creep in any direction and creep there as long as necessary, surprising the people and forecast experts for a long time..
All Russian ministries had to submit their proposals to reduce their spending in order to reduce 500 billion. rub of government spending.

The ruble against the dollar against the background of gas

The ruble is also under pressure from economic sanctions that the West imposed on Russia for participating in the crisis in Ukraine.
Due to such a low gas price and economic sanctions against Russia, the country s foreign exchange reserves were the smallest for 5 years.
Despite all measures, the ruble weakened and previously crossed the mark 86 rub per US dollar, but made a rollback and is strengthening against the backdrop of rising gas prices. I would like to remind you that in the event of a fall in the currency, the population of the country becomes poorer, and the economy is more precarious.. It was noticed that the ruble fell slightly less than the gas price and this is a good sign for the country s economy..
There was some panic on the Russian markets during the peak of the falls, as well as the Russian stock indices RTS, MICEX and the prices of shares of Russian companies, especially those related to the production and processing of gas..
Many people buy euros and dollars in slightly larger volumes than usual.. However, this was also the case before, because the ruble usually did not make up a large part in the basket of currencies to preserve and increase capital..
The weakness of the ruble carries inflationary risks, which could limit the scope for easing monetary-credit policy needed to curb the economic downturn. Due to the depreciation of the ruble, consumer prices will rise. Central Bank sets key rate at regular board meeting.